A second British Columbian “poll” suggests more Green MP’s might be accompanying Elizabeth May back to Ottawa. UBC’s Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets‘ system is more akin to the stock market than regular polls, but has proven to be surprisingly accurate in the past. As of October 13, Sauder’s market predicts 3 Green Seats.
While it is not surprising to find Canada’s three major parties virtually tied, this week’s Nanos poll showed an often overlooked trend. When respondents ranked their “two current local preferences,” the Green party scored 27.7%. They have been consistently receiving 25% to 30% ratings for a year. It is easy to see why Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair do not want Elizabeth May to take part in leadership debates. There is potential for a four way race.