A second British Columbian “poll” suggests more Green MP’s might be accompanying Elizabeth May back to Ottawa. UBC’s Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets‘ system is more akin to the stock market than regular polls, but has proven to be surprisingly accurate in the past. As of October 13, Sauder’s market predicts 3 Green Seats.
The thing I love about Nanos polls is that they list a second party their respondents are considering. This shows gives us a better picture of the potential growth for each party. As you can see in the bar chart above, the Conservatives (CPC) are really the nation’s third choice. However the NDP and Liberals keep cancelling each other out. This the Conservatives, who have not received 40% of the popular vote since 1988, have been in power for a decade. But what about the Green Party? Continue reading What About The Green Party?→
After months of what has been called a “three way horse race,” the choices are getting clearer. As the narrator from one of the latest Conservative attack ads puts it, “It’s Decision Time, Liberal or Conservative?”
Though their presentation is more sophisticated, many of the political ads for this election use the simple formula “We good, they bad.” Viewer are subjected to an ongoing argument in which parties spin the facts to glorify themselves and vilify their opponents. Much of this is questionable, and badly in need of fact checking, but some Canadian political videos are credible.
While it is not surprising to find Canada’s three major parties virtually tied, this week’s Nanos poll showed an often overlooked trend. When respondents ranked their “two current local preferences,” the Green party scored 27.7%. They have been consistently receiving 25% to 30% ratings for a year. It is easy to see why Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair do not want Elizabeth May to take part in leadership debates. There is potential for a four way race.