Poll Depicts BC’s Three Political Regions

By Roy L Hales

Similar to the Republican party south of the border, the BC Liberal’s strongest support has always come from the province’s interior. The more populated Great Vancouver area tends to vote for the NDP. So did Vancouver Island, though during the past two weeks the Green party nudged ahead. Mainstreet Research’s latest poll depicts BC’s three political regions.

Liberals Ahead In The Interior

BC Liberals Dominate the Interior – Graph Adapted from Mainstreet Research’s by Roy L Hales

For the most part, the Liberals have maintained a 4-6 point lead in the interior. Though the NDP have also made gains, they are falling behind. The Green party is making the most dramatic progress, but have yet to climb back to where they were two months ago. Two thirds of the Conservatives support has left.

Vancouver Island Is Going Green

Green Party Takes The Lead on Vancouver Island – Graph Adapted from Mainstreet Research’s by Roy L Hales

A totally different story is emerging on Vancouver Island. When Mainstreet released its’ first data, the number of respondents saying they would vote Green was far below that of the Liberals and NDP. Since then, they’ve managed to climb 16 points.

“The Greens have gained over our last poll … and are now leading by 4 percentage points on Vancouver Island. At the same time the Green vote has solidified, 53% of Green Voters now say they won’t change their mind – similar to the increase the Liberals and NDP are seeing as well,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

NDP Still Ahead In Greater Vancouver

NDP Still Ahead In Greater Vancouver – Graph Adapted from Mainstreet Research’s by Roy L Hales

The Liberals were ahead in Mainstreet’s first poll of Greater Vancouver. They fell back and the NDP took the lead. Maggi points out that “most of the Liberal recent gains are in the Greater Vancouver area,” but they still have not recouped their losses over the past two months.

Meanwhile the Greens are +3% and the NDP +5%.

Poll Depicts BC’s Three Political Regions

Potential Penetration for all parties – Roy L Hales graph

Though the gap has narrowed, the NDP still lead by 2%  province-wide.

They also have the deepest potential reach, though it is still at least theoretically possible that any of the three leading parties could surge forward to form a majority government.

In reality , with 20 days until May 9,  it looks like British Columbia may elect a minority government with the Green Party holding the balance of power.

Top Photo Credit: Premier Christy Clark surrounded by men in hard hats (2012) by Erin via Flickr (CC BY SA, 2.0 License)

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